Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
